THOSE INCONVENIENT LITTLE FACTS - AT 7:50 A.M.   I've always admired Howard Baker, who served as a Republican senator from Tennessee, and then, briefly, as President Reagan's chief of staff.  Today, in the Washington Post, he looks back and reminds us that the death of the Republican Party has been predicted periodically, and each prediction has failed.  So cheer up:

In 1964, when I first ran for the U.S. Senate, I was crushed beneath the Lyndon Johnson landslide that not only vanquished Barry Goldwater but also swept in a huge Democratic congressional majority -- far exceeding the numbers the Democrats enjoy today.

But Johnson overreached, tried to install too much government on the American people.

This political overreach was evident as early as 1966, and it created a rising tide for every Republican running that year, including a new governor of California named Reagan, a new congressman from Texas named Bush and myself -- that year, I became the first Republican ever popularly elected to the Senate from Tennessee.

In other words, after being declared dead in 1964, the Republican Party was vigorously resuscitated in 1966...

And...

This is a cautionary tale for anyone who believes that Barack Obama's election, or Sen. Arlen Specter's defection, or anything else we may see in the coming weeks and months augurs a permanent shift in American politics.

Finally...

The core Republican beliefs in less government, lower taxes, more liberty and greater security in a dangerous world united people as different as Mark Hatfield and Jesse Helms during my years as leader of the Senate. Those same beliefs carried Ronald Reagan into the White House in 1980 and 1984. Those beliefs still have power today. And if the American people perceive overreaching or underachieving in the Obama administration and among its allies in Congress, the Republican way may prove very attractive again in very short order.

It's happened before.

COMMENT:  The press leans to the left (shock), and it delights in writing obituaries for the GOP.  So does the academic world.  Yes, the party has to work hard to rebuild, but it has a good chance to gain seats in Congress next year, if the Rasmussen surveys are correct.  President Obama, even if he remains popular, may not have much electoral clout if the Dem Congress is perceived as messing things up, as it has a tendency to do.

May 6, 2009